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Professor Askar Akaev

Askar Akaev’s name is well known in international scientific, political and social spheres. Up to March 2005, he was the President of Kyrgyzstan, and, in this capacity, he visited dozens of countries, often spoke at the UN and UNESCO, in many American, European and Asian universities and "think tanks". Taking into account his many-sided activities, one may legitimately raise a question, what Professor Akaev is as a person, and ask, "Who are you, Professor Akaev?"

Professor Akaev’s human destiny is unique. The ancient nomadic clan, from which came the ancestors of Akaev belonged to the Kyrgyz aristocracy. The establishment of the Soviet power in the region destroyed the old ways of life. Professor Akaev’s parents (unlike their ancestors) were sedentary and found themselves among poor peasants. Askar Akaev’s natural talent, his irresistible thirst for knowledge, especially in the exact sciences, and youthful boldness led him from a distant mountainous region Ala-Too in the depths of Central Asia to one of the most prestigious technical universities of St. Petersburg. Further scientific advancement of Akaev may look almost fabulous. In his youth he wrote a number of innovative research papers, quickly defended his doctoral thesis, and soon became a professor. Till now some fundamental research by Akaev related to laser physics, optical storage devices and data processing, as well as high information technologies, remains quite popular. This resulted in the situation when, being still 44 year old, Askar Akaev was elected in 1989 by the National Academy of Sciences of Kyrgyzstan as its President. Afterwards 10 other academies elected Akaev as their foreign members, whereas 13 foreign universities have awarded him an honorary doctorate. But Professor Akaev himself thinks that, perhaps, his highest scientific honor is that he was elected in 2006 as a foreign member of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

In recent years, Askar Akaev returned to his original scientific activities. He was appointed as a Senior Research Professor to the Ilya Prigogine Institute of the Mathematical Investigations of Complex Systems of the Moscow State University. In a number of his recent articles his in-depth knowledge of modern Mathematics and Physics is effectively used for the analysis of macro-processes occurring in the global and Russian economy. Askar Akaev is very successfully working in his research of new ideas, unifying theory of cyclical fluctuations in business activity and long-term economic growth trends – taking into account their mutual influence, as well as in the development of a new methodology for long-term forecasting of world dynamics.

Notwithstanding the unquestionable importance of Akaev’s scientific achievements, the interest in his person is largely associated with his 14 year activities in his capacity of the First President of Kyrgyzstan. The start of his presidentship dates back to the collapse of the Soviet empire. For Askar Akaev the main driving forces in his decision to move from the presidency of the National Academy of Sciences to the post of President of the newly independent state was an opportunity to make his personal contribution to the overcoming of authoritarianism, to the development of genuine democracy, to liberal reforms in the socio-economic sphere, to the revival of national consciousness and other progressive ideas. He did not have enough experience, but he had a great desire to rebuild the national life following new democratic ways. Did Askar Akaev manage to realize his dreams in this new field of his activities? Different people give different, and sometimes conflicting answers to this question. However, a few points seem to be undeniable. In Kyrgyzstan, under his leadership, the formation of foundations for a democratic state of law and socially oriented market economy proceeded faster and more efficiently than in the other post-Soviet countries of Central Asia. What did the First President of Kyrgyzstan manage to achieve? A new independent democratic Kyrgyz state was created and received wide international recognition. The national idea was formulated as "Kyrgyzstan as our common home"; the Russian language was recognized as a lingua franca and received the official constitutional status. These played a huge positive role in the strengthening of inter-ethnic and inter-regional harmony in the country.

Kyrgyzstan was the first among the CIS countries that managed to settle (in 1998) the main issue of transitional economy - the question of private ownership of land. In agriculture, the dominant position was played by private peasants and farmers. Kyrgyzstan was the first CIS country to be admitted (in 1998) to the World Trade Organization; this was a testament to the correctness of the course taken in the country to reform the national economy. By 2001 the National Assembly of the Republic had developed and adopted the first long-term strategy for the development of the country "Comprehensive Development Framework for the Kyrgyz Republic until 2010", which received broad support from the international donor community, led by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. One of the main objectives of this strategy was to overcome poverty in the country through the mechanisms of social mobilization and microfinance that were widely used in the country.

Critical judgments are based primarily on the events that took place on March 24, 2005 and that are known as the "Tulip Revolution"; as their result, Askar Akaev voluntarily abandoned his presidency and left the country. Any serious analysis of those events requires an in-depth study. Only history can give them an objective and fair assessment. However, we cannot fail to see that after those events Kyrgyzstan found itself in a state of profound crisis. Akaev’s long period of stability was replaced by a continuous political, social and economic turmoil.

With respect to the achievements of Askar Akayev a few points should be mentioned. During his presidentship a new independent state was built on the ruins of the authoritarian system. In difficult conditions, Akaev’s admistration achieved a radical democratic transformation that allowed the young state to be called "island of democracy in Central Asia." By the beginning of 2005, the Republic was in a much better shape than by the time of its independence in late 1991. Kyrgyzstan was stable and prosperous country with a high international image. Socio-economic development was on the rise. A strong civil society had been formed. Interethnic relations were exemplary. Kyrgyzstan was transforming into a free society in which citizens could live without fear for their human rights, civil liberties and security of person. The First President intended to do much, but not all succeeded. Fourteen years is too little time to implement the integrity of the democratic program, as practice of neighboring countries shows. Reforms aroused high expectations among the people. This and other factors caused the coup of March 24, 2005 that drastically changed the political and personal destiny of Askar Akaev.

And as for Askar Akaev, the critical moment came to him in 2005, "the moment of truth," when not in word but in deed he had to demonstrate his solid humanistic and democratic convictions. He decided not to cling to power. Not to shed the blood of the Kyrgyzstan citizens for the sake of power, as happened in other countries that experienced "color revolutions" – in Georgia, Ukraine, Egypt, Tunisia and so on. He rejected the proposal to use force, especially to shoot people who went out under the pressure of instigators, in whose ranks an active role was played by representatives of the drug mafia and criminals who came to the central square of the capital in order to seize power by force. His last presidential order was: "do not shoot under any circumstances". Akaev chose to leave the country but not to shed the blood. He decided to abandon politics and to return to science.

The answer to the question "Who are you, Professor Akaev?" appears to be quite clear. He is a well-known scientist, as well as a person of truly humanistic and democratic views. For a fair and objective assessment of his personality this seems to be the most important.

Professor Askar Akayev

Qualifications: Doctor of Technical Sciences, Full Member of the National Academy of Sciences of Kyrgyzstan, Foreign Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences,

Position: Senior Research Professor, Institute for Mathematical Investigations of Complex Systems, Moscow State University.

Key dates in the life and work of Askar Akaev

1944 – born on November 10 in the village Kyzyl-Bayrak of the Kemin District of the Kyrgyz Republic.

1961 – graduated from high school with honors.

1961 – worked as a mechanic at the "Frunzemash" Plant.

1968 – graduated from the Leningrad (now St. Petersburg) Institute of Precision Mechanics and Optics with honors

1972 – defended his Candidate of Sciences thesis

1977 – published the world's first fundamental scientific monograph on coherent optical computers (Coherent optical computers. Leningrad: Engineering Publishers, 1977, in Russian)

1978 – became the winner of the Lenin Komsomol Award in the field of science and technology

1980 – defended his doctoral dissertation at the Moscow Engineering Physics Institute and received the degree of Doctor of Technical Sciences

1978–1986 – worked as the Head of the Department of Computer Science at the Frunze Polytechnic Institute.

1982 – was awarded the title of professor.

1984 – was elected a Corresponding Member of the National Academy of Sciences of the Kyrgyz Republic

1986 – was appointed the Head of the Department of Science, Education and Health of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Kyrgyzstan

1987 – was elected a Full Member and Vice-President of the Academy of Sciences of the Kyrgyz Republic

1988 – published a textbook "Optical methods of information processing" (Moscow: Vysshaya Shkola, 1988, in Russian")

1989 – was elected the President of the Academy of Sciences of the Kyrgyz Republic

1989 – was elected a Deputy of the Supreme Soviet of the USSR and member of the Committee on Economic Reform

1990 – was elected the first President of the Kyrgyz Republic

1996 – published his book Holographic Storage and Processing of Information" (New York, in English)

1990–2005 – for 14 years Askar Akaev was the head of an independent Central Asian state. He led his country through the most difficult period of transition, aggressively pursuing a policy of promoting democracy and overcoming authoritarianism, carried out radical democratic reforms in the political, social and socio-economic life of Kyrgyzstan.

2005 – Akaev left the country as a result of the coup (known as the "Tulip Revolution"). He voluntary resigned from the post of President of the Kyrgyz Republic to avoid bloodshed.

Academic career after 2005

2006 – was elected a Foreign Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences for outstanding research in the field of optical information processing. Appointed as a Professor to the Moscow State University.

2006 – appointed as a Senior Research Professor to Ilya Prigogine Institute for Mathematical Investigations of Complex Systems Institute.

2008 – appointed as the Academic Supervisor to the Center for Basic Research of the Economy of Russia (St. Petersburg).

2014 – appointed as the Academic Supervisor to the Laboratory of Monitoring of the Sociopolitical Destabilization Risks of the National Research University Higher School of Economics (Moscow)

Publications

Between the 1970s and the 2000s, Akaev authored over 200 scientific articles and monographs, including such as "Holographic memory", "Selected lectures on optical computers", "Relefografiya", "Economic transition: a physicist’s interpretation (A mathematical model of transition economy)," and others.

Between 2006 and 2015 he has published more than 100 scientific articles and several books, including "Modelling and forecasting the global dynamics" (Moscow: Science, 2012), "Business Cycles and Economic Growth" (St. Petersburg: SPGPU, 2011), "Forecast and simulation of crises and global dynamics" (Moscow: LKI, 2010), “Application of Contact Mechanics to the diagnosis of pathological conditions of soft biological tissues” (Moscow: Moscow State University, 2009).

Memberships and scientific societies and scientific awards

Akaev has been elected a foreign member of more than a dozen national and international academies. He was awarded honorary doctorates and professorships by 13 foreign universities. He is a winner of the Kondratieff Gold Medal and the Leontieff Gold Medal; he was awarded with the Gold Medal and the Order of Vernadsky for his outstanding contribution to the development of economic theory and the theory of the noosphere. Hw has the title of "Knight of Science and Art."

State and public awards

Akaev was awarded with the Order "Badge of Honor", the Order of the Grand Cross of the Freedom and Unity of the Association "For the Unity of Latin America," Pushkin Medal "for his great contribution to the preservation and dissemination of the Russian cultural heritage in Kyrgyzstan." He is the First Prize Winner of the Russian "Keeper of Peace and Goodness" Prize. He is the Winner of the Russian Peter the Great Prize for his personal contribution to the development of cultural, political and socio-economic cooperation between Russia and Kyrgyzstan (2003) and others. He is married and has 4 children and 4 grandchildren. 

From 2005 to 2014 Askar Akaev has actively and fruitfully participated in the revival and further development of theory of sustainable innovative-cyclic economic development by Schumpeter-Kondratiev. In this research are he personally, as well as in collaboration with many colleagues and co-workers has published more than 10 monographs and over 100 scientific articles, which gained wide renown among experts in Russia and far abroad. Main scientific results obtained by A.Akaev can become the scientific and practical basis for the development of economic policy for successful overcoming of present depression, caused by financial-economic crisis of 2008-2009, and strategy of sustainable economic growth. They are listed below.

1. Theory of real interaction of economic growth and business cycles

2. Mathematical model of the theory of innovative-cyclical development by Schumpeter-Kondratiev.

3. Mathematical models of economic development structural analysis.

4. Medium-term strategy of integral modernization of the Russian economy until 2025.

5. Mathematical models for the prediction of cyclical financial-economic crises.

6. Mathematical models for long-term forecasting of the global and regional economic development.

7. Theoretical basis of nooeconomy - the economy of justice and mind.

BRIEF ABSTRACT OF ESSENTIAL SCIENTIFIC RESULTS

1. Theory of real interaction of economic growth and business cycles

In the 50s of the last century many refined mathematical models of economic cycles theory have been developed, on the basis of the interaction mechanism of multiplier and accelerator by P. Samuelson and J. Hicks, as well as theories of economic growth by R.Solow with application of production functions. All of these theories, at different time, were rewarded with the Nobel Prize in Economics. The abovementioned models became a starting point for all subsequent studies of these key issues of macroeconomic dynamics. The main drawback of above theories and corresponding models was the separate analysis of long-term growth and cyclical swings, while it follows from the classical theory of economic development by Schumpeter that cyclical swings are inseparable component of long-term economic growth. On the other hand, it is the interaction of the growth trend with cyclic business swings determines critical points – bifurcation points, recession breakdown point, etc. Therefore, the theory of real economic development should include the mechanism of interaction of growth trend and business cycles.

A.Akaev was the first to obtain general differential equation of macroeconomic dynamics, describing the interaction of long-term economic growth and business cyclic swings [5]. In fact, Akaev’s model is a synthesis of mathematical models of business cycles of the theory of business cycles by P. Samuelson-Hicks and theory of economic growth by R. Solow. It needs to be emphasized, that Akaev equation allows to model both Big Kondratiev Cycles and medium-term Kuznets and Juglar cycles, as well as short-term Kitchin cycles, as shown in his works [9,18,27,38].

In the following paper [9] A.Akaev has thoroughly and in detail examined the solutions of his equation of macroeconomic dynamics. The equation contains nonlinear investment accelerator, providing the maintenance of non-damping cyclic swings in economic system. Therefore, the abovementioned nonlinear differential equation of macroeconomic dynamics could serve as an efficient model for the analysis of real business cycles in modern economy. On the basis ofthis mathematical model, describing real nonlinear interaction of economic growth and business cycles, he developed the model of anti-cyclic management for implementation of policy of economic stabilization, aimed at the provision of sustainable economic growth and full employment [30].

For the solution of non-linear equation of macroeconomic dynamics, asymptotic averaging technique by Krylov-Bogolyubov-Mitropolsky, widely used in non-linear mechanics, is applied. By doing so, it was shown that, for example, under certain conditions, parametric resonance could occur in developed market economy [6]. The source of perturbation is very weak periodic changes of interest rate, which due to nonlinear amplification mechanisms might have substantial impact on oscillation processes, resulting in resonance when output amplitude can increase without limit, which, in turn, in unfavorable conditions could lead to devastating consequences. In the general case, numerical solution of non-linear differential equation is required [29].

In [8,10] qualitative analysis of the solutions of nonlinear differential equations, describing the cyclic swings of business activity and economic growth was performed. The results of the system stability study and bifurcation points where the system loses stability and becomes susceptible to structural changes innovations were studied. It was shown, that an economic system with nonlinear accelerator is classical self-vibrating system where nonlinear accelerator plays the part of positive feedback mechanism, and accelerator’s power, which is the main control parameter of system dynamics is system gain. The consequence of bifurcation is the onset of self-sustained oscillations, which facilitate the change of equilibrium level, which, in turn, determines increasing growth in economy. One describes mechanism of impact of short-term cyclic oscillations on the formation of long-term economic growth trajectory.

An additional approach, developed by the author, involves mathematical formalization of Schumpeter’s theory of business cycles with the use of Markov’s random birth and death processes [3]. By doing so, he obtained explicit mathematical solutions, describing the dynamics of upswings and downswings of economic activity, caused by technological shocks. This model allows to perform unified analysis of economic growth and cyclic swings, i.e. growth cycle theory [7]. It can be also fruitfully used for the investigation of the Juglar and Kondratiev cycle interaction. General differential equation of macroeconomic dynamics was particularized by the author for USA [27].

The verification of mathematical model of macroeconomic dynamics was exemplified by the economic development of USA during the fifth Kondratiev cycle (1982-1910). Since the model describes cyclic swings along with the trend, verification revealed, that during period at issue there were 9.5 years long Juglar cycle and 22.4 years long Kuznets cycle in the US economy; the amplitude of the latter was more than 3 times larger than the amplitude of the former. After that, the model was employed for the forecast of economic development of USA in accordance with innovation strategy. The numerical values of model parameters at that were equal to those, which were had been obtained during model calibration at verification stage. The GDP trajectory for USA, calculated with the use of the model provides quite good description of variation of market conditions in accordance with the development of big Kondratiev cycle, including deterioration of conjuncture in 2008-2009 and 2038-2039, resulting in big cyclic crisis recessions. The forecast has also demonstrated that by 2050 the GDP of USA will achieve 36trln. dollars in the prices of 2000, which is in good agreement with forecast, obtained by the researchers of the largest American company Goldman Sachs [27].

2. The mathematical model of the theory of innovative-cyclic economic development by Schumpeter-Kondratiev.

One hundred years ago the great Russian scientist Nikolay Dmitrievich Kondratiev discovered long waves of economic development with the longitude of 40-50 years and discovered their connection with the waves of technology advance and big cyclic crises. As early as in the beginning of the 1920s he predicted the occurrence of world cyclic crisis of 1929, which originated the Great Depression of the 1930s. On the basis of N.D. Kondratiev discovery another great economist of the XX century Joseph Schumpeter has created in 1939 the general theory of economic cycles and innovation theory of economic development [21,27]. However, by the middle of the XX century Keynes theory became economic mainstream.

At present, innovative-cyclic theory of economic development by Schumpeter-Kondratiev has once again became up-to-date and in demand [28]. World economy nowadays performs a transition to 6th Kondratiev long wave of economic development (2020-2050) through hardest depression, which has followed the financial-economic crisis of 2008-2009. NBIC converging technologies will become its driving force. What are the prospects of the new long wave of economic development? In order to answer this, already topical question, one needs to have an adequate mathematical model of Schumpeter-Kondratiev theory of innovative-cyclic economic development, that would allow both simulation and long-term forecasting of innovative economic development [18,48].

A.Akaev has made sizeable contribution to the development of Schumpeter-Kondratiev innovative-cyclic theory in connection with modern economy. Yet being the president of Kirgiz Republic, he developed the strategy of transition to market economy for his country on the basis of Schumpeter’s theory of economic development [1]. Because of successful implementation of the strategy, Kirgizstan was acknowledged to be the leader among CIS countries [in market reforms] and was the first to be accepted to WTO as early as 1998[2].

He, along with co-workers has made extensive studies of the influence of various economic cycles (Kondratiev, Kuznets, Juglar and Kitchin ) on the formation of trajectory of long-term sustained economic growth [34] . Based on the results of the study, he has developed Schumpeter-Kondratiev classical theory of innovative-cyclic economic development [21,48], and built mathematical basis for the innovative-cyclic theory of economic development [27]. A.Akaev used his new results for the development of breakthrough strategy of innovative-technologic modernization of the Russian economy in the upswing of the forthcoming sixth long Kondratiev wave [42]. He pays much attention to the issue of strategic management of economic development processes. He developed the technique of synchronization of economic and financial government policy with the phases of market conditions of Big Kondratiev cycle, which facilitate sustainable social-economic development [30].

In A.Akaev’s article “On the forthcoming geopolitical changes” [16], he showed that being universal, Kondratiev’s ideas of cyclic development allow to bridge the economy and politics, to make forecast estimates in respect to the prospect of geopolitical situation development in the world. In line with he works by the prominent American scientist Frank Klinberg on the relation between the Kondratiev cycles and phases of the US external policy, A.Akaev has demonstrated that the US enters introspective phase of internal policy and predicted, a year ahead, that B. Obama will win the elections in 2008. In the same paper, he predicted that deep financial – economic crisis recession to be expected in 2008-2009 in USA. He also insisted in that paper that the forthcoming crisis in USA would be similar to the Great Recession of the 1930s, which came true. The article, by the way, was concluded by the following appeal: “A political problem of historical importance is set forth in front of the world community – the urgent search for possible measures, targeted at prevention of сползания мира к хаосу as a result of the forthcoming structural crisis of world economy. (p. 79)”. AkaevA.A. and Pantin V.I. have made on the basis of Big Kondratiev Cycle (BKC) theory an extensive forecast of geopolitical shifts [39] and the main threats to world stability [45].

Thus, A. Akaev has for the first time developed , most complete and adequate mathematical model, describing Schumpeter-Kondratiev theory of innovative-cyclic economic development. It was for this work, that A.Akaev received N.D. Kondratiev Gold medal in 2011.

3. Mathematical models for structural analysis if economic dynamics.

A.Akaev also pays attention to the problem of structural changes in an economy. Together with Professor V.N. Sokolov and Dr. Sarygulov he established that there exist certain dependence between the structural shifts and macroeconomic dynamics of GDP, which allows the construction of simplest models for forecasting GDP dynamics after expected structural shifts, as well as management algorithms for economic development to transform the structure of the economy to the desired (optimal) one [12,13]. They developed mathematical models, describing technological structure of the processing industries on the basis of logistic functions of the diffusion of innovative products of different technological level into market areas [14]. In addition, linear attractors, which could be a measure for the estimation of structural changes [22]were revealed and algorithms of the management and optimization of processes of processing industry economic structure [14] were obtained.

All these results allowed formulation of the new methodology of long-term cyclic forecasting for sustainable development of world economy. On the basis of the theory of Big Kondratiev Cycles and the equations of cyclic dynamic of economic growth [15], obtained by the author, compact mathematical model was built. The technique of GDP dynamics management by means of industrial and technological structural shifts was provided [13]. Since technological innovations were considered the driver of economic growth, the author has also presented the basics of modern theory of innovative-technological development of economy and innovation process management principles [24].

As a result of detailed structural analysis of the economies of developed OECD countries, A.Akaev together with coworkers has found, that in the near-term outlook optimal balanced structure of national economy in both industry and technological perspective took place [12]. It was also demonstrated, that the basis of optimal industry structure comprise processing industries (≈20%), financial sector (≈25%) and service sector (≈22%). The core of processing industries, in turn comprises high-tech (≈20%) and middle-high-tech (≈30%) production. The optimal structure of the economy facilitates presence of economic system in the state of dynamic equilibrium. The deviation from optimal structure, results, as a rule, in the reduction of economic growth. It was from this viewpoint, that the authors have performed detailed analysis of structural changes in certain OECD and some BRICS countries, and found factors and reasons providing acceleration or deceleration of economic growth [52].

Structural-technological imbalance and the accumulation of structural disparity may gradually lead to economic decline, long-term economic stagnation and even crisis recession. Indeed, in the course of development of Kondratiev’s big cycle of market conditions, big structural disparities both within national economies and on a scale of the world capitalist economy, which, in turn, caused structural crises and by doing so, had significant impact on further economic development [13].

Structural crisis and accompanying long-term depression, which embraced world economy since the middle of the 1970s, have stimulated activation of studies of the evolution of structural instability and its impact on economic development. As a result of the studies, it was shown, that structural crisis matures independently from development of cyclic processes, bringing the advent of economic crisis nearer, influencing its depth and longevity. The experience of economic crises of 1974-1976 and 1980-1982 indicated, that structural crisis is “embedded” in almost identical way into cyclic movement of economy in different countries. Besides, structural crisis substantially increased the destructive force of crisis, contributing to soaring prices and growing instability in world economic relations [13].

In particular, for the economy of  BRD, G. Mensch demonstrated [13], that it was structural instability, that took place in 1971-1974 has caused crisis in production and employment in 1975-1976. Mensch’s structural analysis has also revealed that structural instability also took place in other developed countries in 1971-1974. Thus, structural crisis of the 1970s coincided with depression phase of fourth Kondratiev cycle and caused deep economic crisis, also playing the role of synchronizer of the following fifth Kondratiev cycle on world scale. Mensch discovered, that structural instability in various parts of economy goes hand-in-hand with structural susceptibility to the breakthrough of big basis innovations and formulated a rule, by which “innovations overcome depression”. It implies that the best time for the start of basis innovations is depression. Revolutionary technologies, lying in the foundation of basis innovations, in turn, lead to both technological and industrial structural changes in economy. For this reason, Mensch called depression to be the time of structural remodeling.

Fifth Kondratiev cycle has started in the early 1980s, with its upswing finishing at the turn of the centuries. World today has found itself in the down phase of depression which will supposedly continue until 2017.  The depth of the crisis of 2008, which is compared to the Great Depression of 1929-1933 is to a large extent due to the fact, that downward stage of fifth Kondratiev cycle was overlapped by two crisis phenomena – structural and financial ones. Since depression is the best time to lay necessary trends of the industrial and technological structural shifts, most of vanguard developed and developing countries are in need of immediate start of practical implementation of active structural policy. The result of such policy will be sustained economic growth in the 2020s and 2030s. Mathematical models of management the industrial and technological structural shifts by Akaev-Sarygulov-Sokolov [13,14,15] will be of use to design such structural economic policy.

4. Middle-term strategy of integral modernization of the Russian economy until 2025.

In a number of works, published in 2006-2014 by A.Akaev [40,41,51] he studied different modernization strategies of the Russian economy and justified the need of innovative-technological breakthrough, based on the full-scale re-equipment of factories in processing industries and carrying-out active industrial policy from the side of the government, as well as prioritized implementation of middle-term import-substituting modernization in the capacity of trigger of the integral strategy of the national economy formation in Russia [51]. Besides, the need for implementation of active industrial policy for maintaining high rate of economic growth was formulated and proved by the author as early as 2006 [4]. On the basis of adequate mathematical models, developed by the author, it was shown, that in case of the prompt formulation and start of import-substituting technological re-equipment, growth rate in 2-3 years will increase to 5-6% per annum, and, in 4-5 years to annual 7-8%, required for doubling of per capita income. In addition, it will also let to diversify to a sufficient degree, the Russian economy and provide annual growth of non-resource export by 6% and more per annum, and sustainable development, independent of external conditions. Besides, import-substituting modernization of the Russian economy will make it susceptible to innovations [51]. Only the development of high-tech sectors of industry and efficient commercial farming is capable of starting the stimulation of the demand for scientific and technical knowledge, innovative technologies, goods and services.

The author has also demonstrated by means of calculations, that to achieve high growth rate of 7-8% per annum one needs to increase the rate of gross capital formation as percentage of GDP to 23-25% and achieve annual growth of fixed capital expenditures to 15% per annum [4,51]. The analysis of historical examples of sustainable dynamic economic development lets one claim that for maintaining growth rate at the level of 7-8% per annum, state investments in the education and infrastructure should comprise 5-7% of GDP. The importance of state investments in public sector is due to the fact, that they substantially increase return from private capital investments. Huge resources are required for the financial support of technological revolution. Therefore, powerful independent financial sector based largely on internal resources, capable to take risk and promptly give credits to industrial enterprises, is a pre-requisite of success of the new modernization strategy of the economy of Russia. Of course, projects are to be funded on the basis of public-private partnership. The initiative today, however, as emphasized by President V.V.Putin, should belong to the state. It is targeted government investments, that should play the important part of a catalyzer in modernization of the Russian economy.

A ubiquitous component of the new technological modernization strategy of the Russian economy is particular attention to extensive training of highly qualified engineering and technical personnel, based on achievements of forthcoming technological revolution, in particular, the NBIC converging technologies. President V.V. Putin demanded, that by 2020 more than one third of personnel , working in the economy, should highest competence. The author, on the basis of the R&D model, designed by him, indicated, that R&D industryto be extended and modernized, considering two-fold increase of the number of scientists, engineers and technical personnel of highest qualification, in R&D field (from 445 thousand in 2010 to about 850 thousand by 2050) [42]. This is a must, since modern R&D system turned into factory, producing technologies, goods and services. Thus, the technological upgrade of the economy along with innovative development via R&D and accelerated growth of human capital is the key to technological revival of Russia in the XXI century [35].

5. Mathematical modeling for the forecasting of cyclic financial-economic crisis.

One of the greatest achievements of A.Akaev was prediction, in cooperation with academician V.A. Sadovnichij and professor A.V. Korotaev of the second wave of financial crisis, which occurred on August 4, 2011 [19]. This was the result of intensive studies in the search of predecessors (indicators) of cyclic financial-economic crises and development of adequate mathematical models of their behavior immediately ahead of onset of crisis phenomenon ( slump and deep recession, burst of financial bubble etc.). First of all, these scientists established that a predecessor of global cyclic financial-economic crisis is always explosive growth of price of such readily marketable commodities as oil and gold, connected with speculative bubbles and their subsequent burst. Next, they have demonstrated that stochastic explosive price growth is sufficiently well described by accelerating log-periodic oscillations, which overlap explosive growth trend, described by power function with singularity in the final moment of time [25].

Indeed, energy is the main manufacturing resource, therefore it is the structure and level of energy consumption, that are main characteristics of the world and national economies as well as of the quality of live and living standards. At present oil is primary energy resource. As early as the 1970s the US scientists C. Marchetti and N. Nakitsenovich made notice of periodically recurring jumps in price on primary energy resources, which coincide with cycle change of Big Kondratiev Cycle. [19]. What is more, this price spikes last for about 10 years and signal the start of important structural shift in energy consumption. When world economy is in the upwave of Kondratiev cycle, world market conditions are constantly improving, oil prices, in accordance with the theory of Kondratiev cycles are at low stationary level, defined by the cost of production and transportation. However, as soon as substantial worsening of world market conditions at a downwave of Kondratiev cycle occurs, capital quickly transfers into oil and gold, as absolute liquidity assets, causing explosive growth of prices [20].

The scientists, with the help of abovementioned model have shown, that world economic crisis of 2008 could have been predicted one a half years ahead with the accuracy of 1-2 weeks by the approximation of oil price dynamics starting from 2006 by accelerating log-periodic function, overlapping power function with singularity. Starting from 2006, when log-periodic oscillations could be observed, oil price grew abruptly in one and half or two years from 60 to 147 dollars/barrel. Then on July 14, 2008 oil price dropped down to 30 dollars/barrel and soon afterwards reached the price range of 75-80 dollars/barrel, which was considered comfortable for both producers and consumers of oil. It was known, that the actual start of financial crisis usually occurs about 1.4 month after price collapse. Indeed, our estimates of singularity point gave August 31 , 2008 – sufficiently close to the start of acute phase of financial-economic crisis, dated September 15, 2008. Thus, the authors came to a conclusion that the crisis of 2008 could have been predicted 1.5-2 years ahead of its start, i.e. as early as 2006-2007.

The above result was obtained by the group of scientists Sadovnichij-Akaev-Korotaev in the beginning of 2010. Then, they asked a question: can one predict the second wave of financial crisis? Since after burst of oil bubble, investors started unitedly and feverishly invest capitals into gold and other precious metals, largely in gold. Therefore, sharp increase of the volume of investments in gold gave evidence on approaching second wave of crisis. Indeed, the analysis of current gold price dynamics revealed, that by the start of 2010 log-periodic oscillation gained significant acceleration and there was sufficient number of crossings with upward trend in order to calculate coordinate of blow-up point, i.e. forecast date of the start of second crisis wave [20]. Calculations pointed at August 3, 2011 [19,25]. The crash at the Asian stock markets, which announced about the start of the second crisis wave, as is known, occurred on August 4, 2011. Thus, the start of the second crisis wave of current financial-economic crisis had been predicted with amazing accuracy, virtually 9-10 month before its start. What is more, forecasting result were published in leading scientific journals both in Russia [19,25] and in the US [20] as early as 2010. The consequences of the second wave were discussed in detail in paper [26]. 

6. MATHEMATICAL MODELS FOR LONG-TERM FORECASTING OF GLOBAL AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

The long-term models of economic forecasting are meant for studying the conditions of long economic growth and development. They are of practical interest, because they are badly needed for strategic planning of long-term economic development. The forecasting horizon is usually taken equal to the period of one Big Kondratiev Cycle (BKC), i.e. 30-40 years. By the transition from one BKC to another the cluster of basis innovations and technological mode change, therefore the forecasting for a longer period becomes unreliable and even inadequate. In the capacity of basis model of economic growth one usually uses simplest model by Mankiw-Romer-Weil with human capital, which describes quite well both developed and developing countries, and is best suited for long-term forecasting [49,50].

A.Akaev has developed a new methodology for the long-term forecasting of dynamics of world and national economies by endogenising of classical Solow production function with human capital. The calculation of dynamics is reduced to calculation of the dynamics of technology advance and demographic dynamic. For the calculation of demographic dynamics, he together with academician V.A. Sadonvichij for the first time obtained modified nonlinear differential equation with three lags, describing mean time to fertility, diffusion time of basis technologies and lag in biospheres’ reaction to anthropogenic load [17].   Due to introduction of time lags, new mathematical model allows efficient use of pre-history of demographic dynamic for more than a century and provides perfect fit with actual data in retrospective. The model is flexible and allows modeling of different scenarios of population dynamics: growth with aperiodic return to stationary level; growth and stabilization around stationary level with diminishing oscillations of population. The stationary level of world population in this model is determined by the capacity of the Earth biosphere or limiting capacity of natural environment of a country. Since demographic factor plays central part in global processes, special papers [31,37] by the authors were dedicated to it. Important relation between the demographic and economic transitions was considered [23].  They also obtained original expressions for the calculation of technology advance dynamics with allowance for own and borrowed technologies [49]. On the basis of new methodology various forecast scenarios of economic development were calculated for vanguard countries (USA, Japan, UK, Germany and BRICS countries ) until year 2050 with allowance for energy-ecological limitations [32,50,62].

In elaboration of given methodology A.Akaev developed a technique of successive iterations for the mathematical description and calculation of technological advance dynamics with allowance for the change of technological mode and the mode of manufacture of technological innovations, which turned out to be quite efficient in modeling of dynamics of technology advance over the period of several BKC. Thus, he built elegant mathematical model , sequentially describing the transition to the Great Divergence – sudden and rapid separation of the West from the rest of the world in XIX century due to the Industrial revolution, and then difficult transition to convergence between the West and Developing world after the World War II, which has put an end to world colonial system, and, finally – transition to acceleration of convergence in the beginning of the XXI century, due to the rise of the East, first of all China and India. The model also predicts that the Great Convergence will occur by 2050 and the world center of production of goods and services will shift again to the Eastern Asia – China and India. The results are presented in paper [62].

Until very recently mathematical models of long-term forecasting of economic dynamics were constructed on the basis of neoclassical theory of economic growth  by R. Solow, which doesn’t take into account any cyclic oscillations. However, yet J. Schumpeter demonstrated, that long-term economic growth reminds of climbing steps, each of them being described by a logistic function. A.Akaev was the first to shape the corollary from innovation-cycle theory by Schumpeter-Kondratiev with application of new innovation paradigm by the outstanding Japanese scientist M. Hirooka. He, together with M. Hirooka, derived an analytical expression allowing to calculate the trajectory of a trend of economic development during one complete Kondratiev cycle from characteristics of corresponding technology mode [11]. On this basis, jointly with V.A. Sadovnichij he developed the mathematical models and new methodology of long-term cyclic forecasting [18], the novelty of which is in cyclic behavior of global processes. The latter, non-linearly interacting with main trend of long-term economic growth determines the time of critical phenomena and recessions in social-economic development [38,43].

The most efficient for a number of practical applications was multi-factor model of cyclic economic dynamics developed by A.Akaev, which was used for the modeling and forecasting of post-crisis economic development of local civilizations [33]. Mankiw-Romer-Weil model of economic growth, which included human capital was taken as basis model. Then they used simple appropriate models, allowing for the property of the diminishing returns of production factors, for the description of mail production factors – the physical and human capital, technological advance and number of employed in economy. As such, asymptotical models fit well sometimes [36]. The model of the dynamics of technology advance additionally includes oscillatory component, which is due to the influence of Kondratiev, Kuznets and Juglar cycles. As a result, one obtains multifactor model for long-term forecasting of macroeconomic dynamics with allowance for cyclic oscillations of Kuznets and Juglar, within on BKC. The numerical values of model parameters are determined in the process of model verification during last retrospective BKC.

7. THEORETICAL BASIS OF NOOECONOMY – THE ECONOMY OF JUSTICE AND MIND

The main concern of the world community today is reduced to the solution of two mutually related problems: successful overcoming the consequences of global financial-economic crisis in 2008-2009 and provision of sustainable post-crisis growth of world economy. The scale of the present crisis is so big, that it was for the first time compared to the Great Depression of the 1930s. Indeed, unprecedented economic inequality and extreme social polarity existing in the world by 2008, like it was before the crisis of 1929, overlapped regular cyclic economic crisis and intensified it manifold. Sharp decrease of living conditions of the majority of population occurred, in the first place in developed countries of the world. Altogether, it caused mass social protests in USA and West-European countries and in some countries of the Near East and North Africa they were so powerful, that prompted social revolution. In this connection, the issue of decreasing the income inequality between different strata of the society to a socially acceptable level has become essential from the viewpoint of their influence on forthcoming world economic growth. It is likely to be expected that one of the key components of new economic model of development will be overcoming excessive inequality in income distribution and extreme social polarity, i.e. the turn from liberal economic model to socially oriented market economy.

Current world financial-economic crisis gave lower priority to ecological problems only for a time. However, they didn't disappear. On the contrary, ecological situation in the world only is only getting worse. As soon as the revival and new rise of world economy start, they will stand at full length and require ever increasing funds on environmental measures. The solution of listed and other companion problems will incur substantial material costs for the world economy, but, at the same time, can provide sustainable economic development in the long term.

Therefore, speaking of new economic model, one should indicate news sources of long-term economic growth and new conditions, by meeting which, one is guaranteed long-term sustainable growth.

The source of economic growth during forthcoming long Kondratiev wave (2018-2050), as has been established, is 6th technological mode (TM), based on NBIC- technologies (N-nano, B-bio, I – information-communication, C-cognitive), generated by NBIC – revolution [55,56]. Active process of technological convergence, designating mutual technology diffusion, was particularly well pronounced in NBIC-convergence.  The process of technological convergence is, as a rule, accompanied by synergetic effect, characterizing the growth of production efficiency due to convergence of technologies. It is the synergy of NBIC-convergence, that will have powerful impact on economic growth in the XXI century [56].

A.Akaev in collaboration with prominent scientist in the field of nanotechnologies, corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Science, A.I. Rudskoi, developed a mathematical model for studying the impact of NBIC-technologies (nano-, bio-, information  and cognitive technologies) on economic growth in the first half of the XXI century [55]. The model allows evaluation of synergetic effect, generated by the convergence of NBIC – technologies and the calculation of the contribution in technology growth rate end economic growth [58]. They have shown, that it was because of  synergetic effect, which was due to convergence of NBIC – technologies, that deceleration trend of world economy, observed in the last 40 years was replaced by the upward trend, which will result in significant increase in world economic growth rate in 2020-2030s [58].

A.Akaev also phrased the conditions, capable collection wise to provide long-term sustainable growth during upwave of the forthcoming 6th big cycle of economic development by Kondratiev (2018-2050) [57]: in the first place, social justice providing fair distribution of income in a society and decrease of income inequality to socially acceptable level; in the second place, fair harmonious globalization, providing fair distribution of globalization profits between developed and developing countries; in the third place, ecologic imperative, providing coordinated and effective efforts of world community without ecological damage to environment; in the fourth place, the stability of world financial system, providing stable investment of financial capital in real economy; in the fifth place, the converging development of vanguard world countries, providing global demand.

A.Akaev called the new model of world economy, conforming to the above five imperatives “neoeconomy”, i.e. the economy of justice and mind [54]. Together with collaborators, he has comprehensively studied the impact of the growing inequality of income distribution among population , which is a key factor of sustainable development today[46,47], on economic growth and social stability. A.Akaev insists, that today, when world financial-economic crisis fully exposed all abovementioned problems, is the most favorable moment to start the formation of neoeconomy in order to save humankind from the deadly wars and natural catastrophes and provide smooth transition to noospheric civilization.

It was for this purpose, that he developed theoretical foundation of nooeconomy – economy of justice and mind for the XXI century [54,57]. Nooeconomy is the foundation for the co-evolution of a human and biosphere, will help to stabilize Earth climate in the XXI century which is the key point of ecological imperative, and will facilitate sustainable development of human civilization. He also developed mathematical model of the Earth climate change and built new global energy strategy, allowing stabilization of climate in the XXI century [44,61]. He indicated the ways of transition to noosphere, in accordance with V.I. Vernadsky and N.N. Moiseev theory [53,57]. The effect of new paradigm of energy consumption, following from new energy strategy on economic growth and life quality of humanity in the XXI century was studied by A.Akaev in several works [59,60]. The latter studies were carried out within the framework of the program of fundamental scientific studies, dedicated to 150th anniversary of birth of the Great Russian Scientist V.I. Vernadsky. For the series of papers A.Akaev was rewarded by Vernadsky’s Acedemic Order in 2013.

References

1. Akaev A.A Transitional economy by the eyes of a physicist (Perekhodnaya ekonomika glazami fizika, RUS) – Bishkek: Uchkun, 2000

2. AkaevAskar Kyrgyzstan. An Economy in Transition – Asia Pacific Press, at the Australian National University, 2001

3. Akaev A.A. Analysis of economic cycles with the help of mathematical model of Markovian random processes(Analiz economicheskikh tsiklov pri pomoshi matematicheskoj modeli Makrovskikh sluchajnikh processov, Rus)// Reports of Academy of Science (DokladyAcademiiNauk RF, rus), 2006, v. 409, #6, pp. 727-731

4. Akaev A.A. Russia on the way to economic growth management (Rossjanaputi k upravleniyu ekonomicheskim rostom, rus), Ekonomicheskaya politika, Journal of the Russian Government, #4, November-December 2006, pp. 149-165

5. Akaev A.A. Derivation of the general equation of macroeconomic dynamics, describing joint interaction of long-term growth and business cycles /(Vivodobshegouravnenijamakroekonomicheskojdinamiki, opisivayushegosovmestnojevzaimodejstviedolgosrochnogorosta I delovikhtsiklov, rus)//Reports of Academy of Science (DokladyAcademiiNauk RF, rus), 2007, v. 417, #4, pp. 439-441

6. Akaev A.A. Parametric resonance in market economic system, induced by periodic variations of interest rate (Parametricheskij resonans v rinichnoj ekonomicheskoj sisteme, vozbuzhdaemij periodicheskimi izmenenijami normi prozenta,rus)// Reports of Academy of Science (DokladyAcademiiNauk RF, rus), 2007, v. 417, #5, pp. 609-612

7. Akaev A.A.Analysis of economic cycles with the help of mathematical model of the flow of random events (Analiz ekonomicheskikh tciklov s pomoch’ju matematicheskoj modeli potoka sluchajnikh sobitij, rus) //Economy and mathematical methods, Journal of Academy of Science (ZhurnalAcademiiNauk RF, rus), 2007, v. 43, #1, pp. 27-37

8. Akaev A.A. Effect of business cycles on long-term economic growth (Vlijanie ekonomicheskikh tsiklov na dolgovremennij ekonomicheskij rost ,rus)//Reports of Academy of Science (DokladyAcademiiNauk RF, rus), 2008, v. 421, #1, pp. 29-33

9. Akaev A.A. Analysis of the solution of general equation of macroeconomic dynamics (Analiz reshenija obshego uravnenija makroekonomicheskoj dinamiki, rus) //Economy and mathematical methods, Journal of Academy of Science (Zhurnal Academii Nauk RF, rus), 2008, v. 44, #3, pp. 62-78

10. Akaev A.A. Qualitative analysis of the impact of business cycles on economic growth (Kachestvennij analiz vlijanija delovikh tsiklov na ekonomicheskij rost,rus)//Economy and mathematical methods, Journal of Academy of Science (ZhurnalAcademiiNauk RF, rus), 2009, v. 45, #3, pp. 78-91

11. Akaev A.A., Hirooka, M On an innovation model for long-term forecasting of innovative-economic development dynamics (,rus)//Reports of Academy of Science (Doklady Academii Nauk RF, rus), 2009, v. 425, #6, pp. 727-732

12. Akaev A.A., Mikhailushkin A.I., Sarygulov A.I., Sokolov V.N. Analysis of the dynamics of industrial and technological structure of OECD economies //Economic policy (Ekonomicheskaya politika, rus), 2009, #2, pp. 116-127

13. Akaev A.A., Sarygulov A.I., Sokolov V.N. Management of economic development dynamics with the help of structural shifts //Reports of Academy of Science (Doklady Academii Nauk RF, rus), 2009, v. 429, #2, pp. 168-173

14. Akaev A.A., Sarygulov A.I., Sokolov V.N.Mathematical models of the transformation and optimization of technological structure in capitalist economy// Reports of Academy of Science (Doklady Academii Nauk RF, rus), 2009, v. 429, #4, pp. 459-464

15. Akaev A.A. Management of the innovations and economic development dynamics with the help of structural shifts //Information economy: institutional problems(Informazionnaja ekonomika: instituzional’ nieproblemi, rus) // Moscow, “Dobroe Slovo”, 2009, pp. 32-52

16. Akaev A.A. On the forthcoming geopolitical changes (the view of geopolitics from the viewpoint of Kondratiev cycle theory) Diplomaticheskij ezhegodnik, 2008 Moscow, East-West, 2009, pp. 60-80

17. Akaev A.A.,Sadovnichij V.A. Mathematical model of demographic dynamics with stabilization  of world population around stationary level // Reports of Academy of Science (Doklady Academii Nauk RF, rus), 2010, v. 435, #4, pp. 320-324

18. Akaev A.A., Sadovnichij V.A.  On the new methodology of long-term forecasting of cyclic dynamics of the World and Russia //  in monograph "The forecast and modeling of crises and world dynamics" - Moscow, LKI publishing, 2009-2010, pp. 5-69

19. Akaev A.A., Sadovnichij V.A., Korotaev A.V.  On possibility of forecasting current global crisis and its second wave  // Economic policy (Ekonomicheskaya Politika, rus), 2010, #6, pp.39-46

20. Akaev A., Fomin A., Tsirel S., Korotaev A. Log-periodic Oscillation Analysis Forecasts the Burst of the “Gold Bubble” in April-June 2011 // Structure and Dynamics (VC Irvine), 2010, 4(3), pp.1-11

21. Akaev A.A.  Foundations of modern theory of innovative-technological development of economy and innovation process management // in book "Analysis and modeling of global dynamics" - Moscow, "Librokom", 2010, pp.17-43

22. Akaev A.A., Sarygulov A.I., Sokolov V.N.  Linear attractors as the estimation measure of structural changes // Economic policy (Ekonomicheskaya politika, rus) 2010, #4, pp.40-54

23. Akaev A.A., Sarygulov A.I., Sokolov V.N.  On the demographic and economic transitions  in macrosocial systems // Economic policy (Ekonomicheskaya politika, rus) 2010, #1, pp.135-148

24. Akaev A.A. Modern financial-economic crisis in the light of innovative-cyclic development of economy and innovation process management / In collected works "System monitoring: Global and regional development" - Moscow, Librokom, 2010, pp. 230-258

25. Akaev A.A., Sadovnichij V.A., Korotaev A.V. Explosive price growth on Gold and Oil as herald of world financial-economic crisis // Reports of Academy of Science (Doklady Academii Nauk RF, rus), 2011, v. 437, #6, pp. 727-730

26. Akaev A., Fomin A., Korotaev A. V. The Second Wave of the Global Crisis? On mathematical analysis of some dynamic series //// Structure and Dynamics (VC Irvine), 2011, #3(1), pp. 1-10

27. Akaev A.A. Mathematic foundations of innovative-cyclic theory by Kondratiev-Schumpeter // Newsletter of the Institute of Economics of the RAS (Vestnik instituta ekonomiki RAN), 2011, #2, pp. 39-60

28. Akaev A.A. Analysis of state and prospects of world economic growth on the basis of Schumpeter-Kondratiev theory // Economy and management (Ekonomika i upravlenie, rus), #2 (64), pp. 6-15

29. Akaev A.A. Galileev M.M., Mikhailushkin A.I. Computer analysis of model of long-term economic dynamics / Projects and risks of the future: Concepts, models, instruments, forecasts  - Moscow, KRASAND, 2011, pp. 130-137

30. Akaev A.A. Strategic management of sustainable growth on the basis of innovative-cyclic theory of economic growth by Schumpeter-Kondratiev // Economy and management (Ekonomika i upravlenie, rus), #3 (65), pp. 4-10

31. Akaev A.A., Sadovnichij V.A. Global demographic models as the basis for strategic forecasting / Projects and risks of the future: Concepts, models, instruments, forecasts  - Moscow, KRASAND, 2011, pp. 17-44

32. Akaev A.A., Sadovnichij V.A.,Anufriev I.E. Mathematic models for the Longterm Forecasting of Demographic, Economic Eco-Energy Development of the World / Problems of Contemporary World Futurology – Cambridge Scholars Publishing, 2011, pp. 76-154

33. Akaev A.A., Sarygulov A.I., Sokolov V.N.  Modeling and forecasting of the economic development of local civilizations (Modelirovanie i prognozirovanie ekonomicheskogo razvitija lokal'nikh tsivilizacij, rus) // Saint-Petersburg, Politechnik University Publishing, 2011

34. Akaev A.A., RumyantsevaS.Yu., Sarygulov A.I., Sokolov V.N.  Economic cycles and economic growth // Saint-Petersburg, Politechnik University Publishing, 2011

35. Akaev A.A., Sadovnichij V.A. Imperatives of development of Russia in crisis conditions // from the book "Scenario and prospects of development of Russia" - Moscow, LELAND, 2011, pp. 6-38

36. Akaev A.A., Sokolov V.N., Akaeva B.A., Sarygulov A.I. Asymptotic models for the forecast of long-term demographic and economic dynamics // Economy and mathematic methods (Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody, rus) , 2011, v. 47,#3, pp.56-67

37. Akaev A.A., Sadovnichij V.A., Korotaev A.V. On the dynamics of the world demographic transition and financial-economic crises forecasts // The European Physical Journal, Special Topics, 2012, 205, pp.355-373

38. Akaev A.A., Sadovnichij V.A. Mathematic modeling of global, regional and national dynamics with allowance for cyclic oscillations / from book "Modeling and forecasting of  global, regional and national development" - Moscow, LIBROKOM, 2012, pp. 5-67

39. Akaev A.A., Pantin V.I. Financial-economic crises and geopolitical shifts: analysis and forecast / from book "Modeling and forecasting of  global, regional and national development" - Moscow, LIBROKOM, 2012, pp. 68-108

40. Akaev A.A.  Analysis and modeling of strategic possibilities in modernization of the Russian economy // Russian World (Mir Rossii, in rus), 2012, #2, pp.27-61

41. Akaev A.A. On the strategy of integral modernization of economy until 2025 // Voprosi ekonomiki, rus, 2012, #4, pp. 97-116

42. Akaev A.A., Anufriev I.E., Kuznetsov D.I. On the strategy of innovative-modernizational development of the Russian economy / from book "Modeling and forecasting of  global, regional and national development" - Moscow, LIBROKOM, 2012, pp. 178-209

43. Sadovnichij V.A., Akaev A.A., Korotaev A.V., Malkov S.Yu. Modeling and forecasting of world dynamics - Moscow, Nauka publishing, Institute of Social and Political Studies of RAS (ISPI RAN), 2012

44. Akaev A.A. Stabilization of the Earth climate in the XXI century by transition to new paradigm of energy consumption //Reports of Academy of Science (Doklady Academii Nauk RF, rus), 2012, v. 446, #4, pp. 442-447

45. Akaev A.A., Pantin V.I. Forecast of geopolitical shifts and main threats to world stability // Geopolitics and security (Geopolitika i bezopasnost', rus), 2012, #2 (18), pp.28-40

46. Akaev A.A., Sarygulov A.I., Sokolov V.N.  Management of income inequalities as a factor of post-crisis economic growth // Economy and management (Ekonomika i upravlenie, rus) 2012, #4 (78), pp. 3-13

47. Akaev A.A., Sarygulov A.I., Sokolov V.N.  Formation of middle class as the way to overcome economic inequality // Economic policy (Ekonomicheskaya politika, rus), 2012, #5, pp.102-117

48. Akaev A.A. Big cycles of market conditions and innovative-cyclic theory of economic development by Schumpeter-Kondratiev // Economic science of modern Russia (Ekonomicheskaja politika sovremennoj Rossii, rus), 2013, #2 (61), pp.7-28

49. Akaev A.A., Sadovnichij V.A.,Anufriev I.E. Advanced R&D model for the forecast calculations of total productivity factors of economic growth // World dynamics: regularities, trends, prospectives - Moscow, KRASAND, 2013, pp. 142-166

50. Akaev A.A., Anufriev I.E., Akaeva B.A. Vanguard world countries in the XXI century under the conditions of converging development - Moscow, Librokom, 2013

51. Akaev A.A. Midium-term import-substituting modernization - trigger mechanism of the strategy of the formation of innovative economy of Russia// MIR (Modernization, Innovation, Development), 2013, #2 (14), pp. 4-25

52. Akaev A.A., Sarygulov A.I., Sokolov V.N.   Structural changes in the developing and developed economies - Saint-Petersburg, Polytechnic University Publishing, 2013

53. Akaev A.A. Doctrine by V.I. Vernadskii and N.N. Moiseev on the noosphere, coevolution of human and biosphere is the imperative of the age // Partnership of civilizations  (Partnerstvo tsivilizacij, rus), 2013, #1-2, pp.90-111

54. Akaev A.A. Economy of the XXI century is nooeconomy, or the economy of justice and mind // Development and economy (Razvitie i ekonomika, rus), 2013, #7, pp.92-101

55. Akaev A.A., Rudskoi A.I. Analysis and forecast of impact of sixth technological mode on the dynamics of world economic development // World dynamics: regularities, trends, prospectives - Moscow, KRASAND, 2013, pp. 142-166

56. Akaev A.A., Rudskoi A.I. NBIC technologies and their impact on the dynamics of world civilization in the first half of the XXI century // Partnership of civilizations  (Partnerstvo tsivilizacij, rus), 2013, #3, pp.54-59

57. Akaev A.A. Economy of the XXI century is nooeconomy, or the economy of justice and mind // Partnership of civilizations  (Partnerstvo tsivilizacij, rus), 2013, #3, pp.110-141

58. Akaev A.A., Rudskoi A.I. Synergetic effect of NBIC technologies and world economic growth in the first half of the XXI century // Economic policy (Ekonomicheskaya politika, rus), 2014, #2, pp.25-46

59. Akaev A.A. The impact of hydrocarbon energy resources on the dynamics of world economic development in the XXI century // Economic science in modern Russia (Ekonomicheskaya nauka v sovremennoj Rossii, rus), 2014,#2 (65), pp. 34-45

60. Akaev A.A.Pokrovskii’s model of economic growth under the condition of new paradigm of energy consumption // Vestnik Instituta Ekonomiki RAN, rus; 2014 #3, pp.12-33

61. AkaevAskar The Stabilization of Earth’s Climate in the XXI century by the Stabilization of Per Capita Consumption / The Oxford Handbook of the Macroeconomics of Global Warming – New York: Oxford University Press, 2014, pp.

62. Sadovnichij V.A.,Akaev A.A., Korotaev A.V., Malkov S.Yu. Complex modeling and forecasting of BRICS countries development in the context of world dynamics – Moscow, “Nauka” Publishing House, 2014

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